The asteroid, at level three on the Turin scale, could hit one of the countries included in the band that starts from South America and reaches all the way to southern Asia
In the great spectacle of our cosmic theater, many celestial bodies dance around the Earth without causing concern. Every now and then, however, it happens that someone needs to be kept under greater control, attracting the attention of the scientific community (and the public): this is the case of the asteroid YR4, which after being identified on December 27, 2024, by the Atlas system in Chile has begun to raise questions and interest.
Yes, because YR4 presents a remote possibility of impact on the Earth in 2032. Let's underline, remote: the real probabilities of a collision are extremely low, but they have been enough to stimulate discussions on a global scale. Scientists are carefully monitoring the asteroid's trajectory to predict where it will hit, better understand the potential risks and prepare for possible scenarios, however unlikely.
What are the chances of asteroid YR4 hitting Earth?
But let's get straight to the point: currently, estimates indicate a 2.3% probability that the asteroid could collide with Earth. Of course, compared to the time of the sighting, the probabilities have increased (previously the risk stood at 1.3%), but the situation remains far from alarming. To assess the risk of impact, astronomers use the Torino Scale, a tool that classifies the potential threat of near-Earth objects on a scale of 0 to 10.
A score of 0 indicates no risk, while 10 represents a certain collision with catastrophic global consequences. Currently, YR4 is classified at level 3, defined as a close encounter that deserves attention from astronomers. For this reason, scientists are monitoring more thoroughly and NASA is continuing to provide information to the public through an outreach page.
The expected date of impact (if it were to occur) is December 22, 2032. However, scientists are taking a cautious approach, preparing for every eventuality, so that all authorities are ready to respond effectively.
Where could the asteroid fall?
The proactive approach of the scientific community is allowing to collect increasingly precise data on the trajectory of the asteroid and to plan any mitigation measures, such as plans to block the celestial body or those of planetary defense. Clearly, international collaboration between space agencies and scientific institutions is fundamental and, up to now, has led to the identification of some more probable impact zones.
These are different regions of our planet: current projections indicate a "risk corridor" that crosses the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and southern Asia. Among the countries potentially affected are Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
As for the consequences, given its estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters, the asteroid could cause significant damage. Its rocky composition suggests that it could fragment upon entering the Earth's atmosphere, generating an airburst with significant local effects.
What if YR4 hit the Moon?
In addition to the Earth, there is a remote possibility (0.3%) that YR4 could collide with the Moon. Although this probability is even lower than that of an impact on Earth, scientists are also considering this scenario. According to experts, an impact on the Moon would generate an explosion visible from Earth, creating a new crater on the lunar surface.
In fact, however, given the absence of an atmosphere on our satellite, there would be no secondary effects such as shock waves or atmospheric debris that could affect our planet. In the meantime, the international scientific community continues to carefully monitor the asteroid: ground-based and space telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, are collecting all the useful data.
The asteroid is expected to remain observable until April 2025, after which it will become too faint to be detected until its next approach in 2028. During this time, additional observations will help reduce current uncertainties and provide more accurate predictions.